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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.14+3.52vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.88+3.06vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.33+0.03vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii1.74+0.74vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.89-0.65vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.45-0.40vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.92-0.22vs Predicted
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9University of British Columbia-0.23+1.88vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.03+2.55vs Predicted
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11University of Washington1.53-4.69vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University-0.01-1.34vs Predicted
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13University of Washington0.95-5.05vs Predicted
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14Western Washington University1.03-6.40vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands0.15-5.02vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands0.15-6.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52University of Hawaii2.140.2%1st Place
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5.06University of Hawaii1.880.1%1st Place
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4.03University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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5.74University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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5.35University of Hawaii1.890.1%1st Place
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6.6University of California at Santa Barbara1.450.1%1st Place
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7.78University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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10.88University of British Columbia-0.230.0%1st Place
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12.55University of California at San Diego-1.030.0%1st Place
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6.31University of Washington1.530.1%1st Place
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10.66Western Washington University-0.010.0%1st Place
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7.95University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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7.6Western Washington University1.030.1%1st Place
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9.98California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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9.98California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pacholski | 15.2% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hitchcock | 13.1% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 18.8% | 16.4% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 9.0% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mathew Butler | 9.1% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Baxter | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| James Hare | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 25.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| McKenna Roonan | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 19.4% | 53.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Gordon | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nikoline Alden | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 16.5% | 19.6% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 13.6% | 18.0% | 17.0% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 13.6% | 18.0% | 17.0% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.