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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.45+5.37vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.14+2.41vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.89+2.15vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.88+1.32vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.92+3.08vs Predicted
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6University of Washington1.53+0.33vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.15+2.86vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.74-3.37vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.33-5.84vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University-0.01-0.41vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.03+0.55vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University1.03-5.24vs Predicted
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14University of Washington0.95-6.17vs Predicted
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15University of British Columbia-0.23-4.04vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands0.15-6.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.37University of California at Santa Barbara1.450.1%1st Place
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4.41University of Hawaii2.140.2%1st Place
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5.15University of Hawaii1.890.1%1st Place
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5.32University of Hawaii1.880.1%1st Place
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8.08University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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6.33University of Washington1.530.1%1st Place
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9.86California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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5.63University of Hawaii1.740.1%1st Place
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4.16University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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10.59Western Washington University-0.010.0%1st Place
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12.55University of California at San Diego-1.030.0%1st Place
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7.76Western Washington University1.030.0%1st Place
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7.83University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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10.96University of British Columbia-0.230.0%1st Place
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9.86California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Baxter | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 15.8% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mathew Butler | 12.4% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Hitchcock | 10.4% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Gordon | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 15.8% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Schadt | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 17.2% | 16.0% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikoline Alden | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 21.6% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| McKenna Roonan | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 17.7% | 53.9% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| James Hare | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 14.7% | 25.1% | 17.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 15.8% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.