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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38+6.47vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+5.19vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30+4.96vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+4.96vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.26+2.96vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.38+1.87vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.94vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.28-0.14vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.34-0.99vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60-3.24vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.92-1.36vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-3.84vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.33-5.05vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University3.70-7.42vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.12-2.76vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.42-1.66vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.07-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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7.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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7.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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7.96Georgetown University3.260.1%1st Place
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7.87U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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8.94SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.86SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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8.01U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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6.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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9.64Old Dominion University2.920.0%1st Place
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8.16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.95Georgetown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.58Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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12.24Washington College2.120.0%1st Place
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14.34Fordham University1.420.0%1st Place
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15.09Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Babbitt | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Nick Aswad | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| John Wallace | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Mason | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Randall Hartranft | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Devin Laviano | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Patrick Kana | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Zach Runci | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 1.8% |
| Ian Liberty | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Eichler | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 10.2% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Hadley Burnham | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 16.0% | 17.5% | 10.9% |
| Michael DeNigris | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 25.5% | 31.3% |
| Matthew Winter | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 9.3% | 20.0% | 48.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.