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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+7.70vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.28+5.93vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.38+4.64vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.34+3.92vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.06+3.71vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.70+0.64vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.92+2.45vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60-1.29vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.26-0.66vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-1.98vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-3.49vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.12+0.30vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30-4.90vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University3.33-6.05vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.42-0.82vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.07-0.91vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38-9.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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7.93SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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7.64U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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8.71SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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6.64Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.45Old Dominion University2.920.0%1st Place
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6.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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8.34Georgetown University3.260.1%1st Place
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8.02St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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12.3Washington College2.120.0%1st Place
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8.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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7.95Georgetown University3.330.1%1st Place
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14.18Fordham University1.420.0%1st Place
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15.09Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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7.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wallace | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| Randall Hartranft | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Taylor Vann | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Devin Laviano | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Brady Stagg | 9.4% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 1.2% |
| Patrick Kana | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mason | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Ian Liberty | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Hadley Burnham | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 16.9% | 18.3% | 11.5% |
| Nick Aswad | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Eichler | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Michael DeNigris | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 25.2% | 31.5% |
| Matthew Winter | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 20.4% | 48.1% |
| Ike Babbitt | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.