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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+5.69vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.30+5.88vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.70+3.47vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38+3.81vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.38+2.47vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+1.46vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+1.22vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.33-0.29vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.26-0.63vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.92-0.72vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.28-2.75vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.12+0.26vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.07+1.97vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.06-4.96vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.42-0.82vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.34-8.14vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-7.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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7.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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6.47Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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7.47U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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7.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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8.22St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.71Georgetown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.37Georgetown University3.260.1%1st Place
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9.28Old Dominion University2.920.0%1st Place
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8.25SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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12.26Washington College2.120.0%1st Place
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14.97Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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9.04SUNY Maritime College3.060.0%1st Place
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14.18Fordham University1.420.0%1st Place
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7.86U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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9.08St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kana | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nick Aswad | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Brady Stagg | 9.7% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Ike Babbitt | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Taylor Vann | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Ian Liberty | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Eichler | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Mason | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Zach Runci | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Hadley Burnham | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 10.3% | 15.4% | 18.2% | 10.8% |
| Matthew Winter | 0.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 9.1% | 19.3% | 50.1% |
| Tyler Steel | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 0.8% |
| Michael DeNigris | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 12.4% | 25.9% | 30.3% |
| Devin Laviano | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| John Wallace | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.