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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.44+5.02vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.04+9.48vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+5.26vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.87+4.43vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.63+4.18vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+4.16vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.67-1.64vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.03-0.47vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.84-0.30vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.24+0.74vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.37-4.41vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.17-4.76vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.01-1.17vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14-2.61vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-5.51vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22-8.95vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.46-3.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.02Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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11.48Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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8.26St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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8.43Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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9.18SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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10.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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5.36U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.53Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.7Georgetown University2.840.0%1st Place
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10.74SUNY Maritime College2.240.0%1st Place
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6.59U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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7.24St. Mary's College of Maryland3.170.1%1st Place
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11.83Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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11.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.0%1st Place
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9.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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7.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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13.56Washington College1.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Gowell | 12.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 3.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 12.0% |
| Don Hause III | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Corina Radtke | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% |
| Michael Grove | 13.0% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Michael Schalka | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Matthew Schoene | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 11.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Karl Haelsig | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Edward Titcomb | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 14.4% |
| Michael Deady | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 10.5% |
| Robert Boger | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| Timothy Zacher | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Kurt Eckhardt | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 9.6% | 15.1% | 34.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.