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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+7.04vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.17+5.11vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.24+7.77vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.84+4.52vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+1.93vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+4.18vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.63+2.34vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+1.34vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.37-2.36vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.44-3.89vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.87-2.41vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.03-4.23vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.01-1.20vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.04-2.30vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.46-1.54vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.67-10.60vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14-5.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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7.11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.170.1%1st Place
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10.77SUNY Maritime College2.240.0%1st Place
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8.52Georgetown University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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10.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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9.34SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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9.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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6.64U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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6.11Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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8.59Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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7.77Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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11.8Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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11.7Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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13.46Washington College1.460.0%1st Place
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5.4U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Hause III | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Karl Haelsig | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Schoene | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.5% |
| Michael Schalka | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Timothy Zacher | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 5.4% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.1% |
| Robert Boger | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Matthew Gowell | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Corina Radtke | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Collin Leon | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Edward Titcomb | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 14.2% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 12.2% |
| Kurt Eckhardt | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 34.6% |
| Michael Grove | 11.8% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Deady | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.