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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.37+5.30vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.03+5.59vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+5.25vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.48vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.44+1.05vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.87+2.58vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+0.04vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.24+2.57vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14+2.42vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.63-0.78vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-1.31vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.01-0.36vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-2.87vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.84-5.37vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.46-1.56vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.04-4.37vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.17-9.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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7.59Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.25St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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5.48U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.05Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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8.58Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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7.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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10.57SUNY Maritime College2.240.0%1st Place
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11.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.0%1st Place
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9.22SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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9.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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11.64Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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10.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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8.63Georgetown University2.840.1%1st Place
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13.44Washington College1.460.0%1st Place
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11.63Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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7.35St. Mary's College of Maryland3.170.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 11.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Collin Leon | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Don Hause III | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Michael Grove | 12.8% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Gowell | 11.0% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Corina Radtke | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Timothy Zacher | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Schoene | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.1% |
| Michael Deady | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 11.6% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Robert Boger | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Edward Titcomb | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 14.2% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| Michael Schalka | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Kurt Eckhardt | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 16.3% | 32.9% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 12.0% |
| Karl Haelsig | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.