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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.44+5.04vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.17+5.09vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+2.42vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+3.07vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.37+1.34vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.84+2.65vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+3.00vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+1.33vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.03-1.13vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-1.83vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.87-2.45vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.24-1.20vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.63-3.52vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.04-2.27vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.01-3.36vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14-4.69vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.46-3.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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7.09St. Mary's College of Maryland3.170.1%1st Place
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5.42U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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6.34U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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8.65Georgetown University2.840.1%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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9.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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7.87Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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8.55Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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10.8SUNY Maritime College2.240.0%1st Place
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9.48SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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11.73Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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11.64Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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11.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.0%1st Place
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13.52Washington College1.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Gowell | 11.3% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Karl Haelsig | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Michael Grove | 13.0% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Timothy Zacher | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Michael Schalka | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 4.0% |
| Robert Boger | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% |
| Collin Leon | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Don Hause III | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Corina Radtke | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Matthew Schoene | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 7.8% |
| Julia Paxton | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Edward Titcomb | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 13.6% |
| Michael Deady | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% |
| Kurt Eckhardt | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 15.4% | 33.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.