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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+8.77vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+4.89vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.24+7.84vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.45vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+3.05vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.03+1.94vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.63+2.36vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14+2.94vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.87-0.41vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-0.54vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.17-3.56vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.04-0.50vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.44-6.73vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.01-2.17vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.84-6.50vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.46-2.42vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.37-10.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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6.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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10.84SUNY Maritime College2.240.0%1st Place
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5.45U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.05St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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7.94Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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9.36SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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10.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.0%1st Place
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8.59Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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9.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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7.44St. Mary's College of Maryland3.170.1%1st Place
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11.5Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.27Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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11.83Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.5Georgetown University2.840.1%1st Place
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13.58Washington College1.460.0%1st Place
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6.58U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Bailey IV | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% |
| Timothy Zacher | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Schoene | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% |
| Michael Grove | 13.2% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Don Hause III | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Collin Leon | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.1% |
| Michael Deady | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% |
| Corina Radtke | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Robert Boger | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% |
| Karl Haelsig | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 12.0% |
| Matthew Gowell | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Edward Titcomb | 1.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 14.8% | 14.9% |
| Michael Schalka | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Kurt Eckhardt | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 15.5% | 33.0% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.