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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+8.23vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.03+5.64vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.37+3.41vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+5.97vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+1.85vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.47vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.04+4.51vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.44-1.92vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.84-0.36vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.63-0.79vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.24-0.02vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.87-3.65vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.17-5.71vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-5.60vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.85-2.87vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.46-2.43vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14-5.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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7.64Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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9.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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6.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.51Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.08Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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8.64Georgetown University2.840.0%1st Place
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9.21SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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10.98SUNY Maritime College2.240.0%1st Place
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8.35Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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7.29St. Mary's College of Maryland3.170.1%1st Place
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8.4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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12.13Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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13.57Washington College1.460.0%1st Place
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11.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Boger | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% |
| Collin Leon | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.0% |
| Timothy Zacher | 10.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Michael Grove | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 10.8% |
| Matthew Gowell | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Michael Schalka | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Julia Paxton | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% |
| Matthew Schoene | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.6% |
| Corina Radtke | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Karl Haelsig | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Don Hause III | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| John O'Riordan | 1.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 18.7% |
| Kurt Eckhardt | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 32.2% |
| Michael Deady | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 11.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.