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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+8.76vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.63+7.22vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+3.99vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.46vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.17+1.99vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.37+0.62vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.87+1.33vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.24+2.52vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.44-2.66vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-0.57vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.84-2.40vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.04-0.53vs Predicted
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13Washington College1.46+0.59vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.85-1.64vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14-3.88vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-7.64vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University3.03-9.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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9.22SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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6.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.1%1st Place
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5.46U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.99St. Mary's College of Maryland3.170.1%1st Place
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6.62U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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8.33Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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10.52SUNY Maritime College2.240.0%1st Place
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6.34Georgetown University3.440.1%1st Place
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9.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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8.6Georgetown University2.840.1%1st Place
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11.47Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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13.59Washington College1.460.0%1st Place
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12.36Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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11.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.0%1st Place
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8.36St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.0%1st Place
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7.85Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Bailey IV | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.3% |
| Julia Paxton | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.8% |
| Timothy Zacher | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Michael Grove | 14.0% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Karl Haelsig | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Corina Radtke | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Matthew Schoene | 4.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.6% |
| Matthew Gowell | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Robert Boger | 4.3% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% |
| Michael Schalka | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 11.4% |
| Kurt Eckhardt | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 14.5% | 34.6% |
| John O'Riordan | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 20.0% |
| Michael Deady | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 9.7% |
| Don Hause III | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Collin Leon | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.