Race 4A

charleston-spring

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Patrick Shannon 13.1% 13.5% 11.7% 11.8% 11.3% 10.4% 8.6% 6.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Max Thompson 5.8% 5.3% 7.2% 7.0% 7.0% 9.5% 9.4% 9.3% 9.7% 10.2% 8.0% 7.6% 4.0%
Andrew Baird 11.6% 14.4% 13.4% 11.0% 11.3% 9.8% 9.1% 6.4% 5.7% 4.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Charlie Kutschenreuter 7.0% 6.1% 7.4% 8.8% 10.3% 8.9% 8.2% 10.4% 8.7% 7.1% 8.6% 6.3% 2.2%
Joshua Paper 6.9% 8.7% 8.5% 10.1% 8.9% 7.7% 8.9% 10.0% 7.8% 9.2% 6.3% 4.0% 3.0%
Kelly-Ann Arrindell 9.3% 9.6% 9.3% 11.0% 11.8% 8.5% 9.6% 8.5% 7.1% 5.3% 5.7% 3.2% 1.1%
Matthew Peterson 5.1% 3.8% 5.8% 4.6% 6.6% 6.0% 6.6% 7.8% 9.5% 10.7% 11.6% 12.5% 9.4%
Mason Wolters 4.2% 6.3% 4.2% 5.8% 5.8% 8.6% 8.0% 9.2% 9.0% 11.9% 11.1% 9.9% 6.0%
Travis Tucker 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 4.0% 4.1% 6.0% 5.0% 6.6% 9.9% 9.5% 12.7% 15.9% 16.3%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas 23.5% 18.8% 16.2% 10.3% 9.2% 7.6% 4.9% 4.5% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Mark Davies 5.0% 5.0% 7.5% 7.9% 5.8% 7.6% 10.4% 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 9.8% 6.5% 5.8%
Jeffrey Hayden 3.7% 3.6% 4.0% 5.5% 5.5% 6.9% 7.6% 7.3% 8.7% 9.8% 11.8% 15.0% 10.6%
William Sunkler 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 3.7% 4.2% 5.5% 6.8% 10.0% 17.0% 41.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.