Race 5A

charleston-spring

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Joshua Paper 7.0% 8.1% 7.8% 10.1% 8.3% 8.7% 9.4% 9.9% 9.9% 7.0% 7.4% 4.2% 2.2%
Mark Davies 5.1% 5.5% 4.9% 7.3% 7.5% 6.0% 8.7% 9.4% 9.5% 11.0% 9.3% 10.2% 5.6%
Patrick Shannon 13.7% 14.1% 10.1% 12.7% 10.1% 11.9% 8.0% 6.7% 5.7% 4.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Jeffrey Hayden 2.9% 3.9% 5.0% 6.6% 5.6% 7.5% 6.4% 6.6% 8.7% 10.5% 12.1% 13.7% 10.5%
Kelly-Ann Arrindell 9.5% 10.5% 10.9% 10.0% 9.1% 9.5% 8.8% 8.6% 9.1% 5.5% 5.0% 2.8% 0.7%
Andrew Baird 14.7% 11.7% 13.9% 11.9% 11.7% 8.6% 8.7% 7.1% 3.9% 4.1% 1.8% 1.4% 0.5%
Max Thompson 6.6% 6.2% 6.7% 6.4% 8.3% 8.4% 9.0% 10.2% 8.7% 9.2% 9.2% 8.0% 3.1%
Mason Wolters 4.4% 6.0% 4.6% 4.9% 6.4% 7.7% 9.0% 9.3% 10.2% 9.5% 11.4% 8.7% 7.9%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas 23.3% 17.7% 16.6% 10.7% 11.1% 7.4% 5.4% 3.6% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2%
William Sunkler 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% 2.0% 2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 5.1% 5.3% 6.8% 8.7% 16.0% 40.9%
Travis Tucker 2.5% 2.4% 5.3% 4.8% 4.7% 5.6% 6.4% 8.0% 9.0% 9.9% 12.5% 14.9% 14.0%
Matthew Peterson 3.2% 4.2% 4.4% 4.7% 6.4% 6.6% 6.4% 6.9% 7.8% 12.2% 12.6% 13.3% 11.3%
Charlie Kutschenreuter 5.3% 7.7% 7.4% 7.9% 8.1% 9.1% 10.5% 8.6% 10.0% 9.1% 7.6% 5.7% 3.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.