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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University4.49+5.05vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges5.05+2.39vs Predicted
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3University of Miami3.50+7.01vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont3.37+6.55vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.07+6.89vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+5.83vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.81+1.67vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida4.17-0.58vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.64+4.19vs Predicted
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10Harvard University4.50-4.08vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.78-2.22vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.56-2.03vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.26-2.26vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.00-1.90vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University4.74-9.77vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin2.85-3.52vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University3.36-6.57vs Predicted
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18University of Washington1.80-1.90vs Predicted
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19Washington College2.29-4.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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4.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges5.050.2%1st Place
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10.01University of Miami3.500.0%1st Place
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10.55University of Vermont3.370.0%1st Place
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11.89Stanford University3.070.0%1st Place
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11.83U. S. Naval Academy2.990.0%1st Place
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8.67Tufts University3.810.0%1st Place
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7.42University of South Florida4.170.1%1st Place
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13.19Yale University2.640.0%1st Place
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5.92Harvard University4.500.1%1st Place
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8.78College of Charleston3.780.0%1st Place
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9.97Boston University3.560.0%1st Place
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10.74St. Mary's College of Maryland3.260.0%1st Place
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12.1SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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5.23Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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12.48University of Wisconsin2.850.0%1st Place
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10.43Salve Regina University3.360.0%1st Place
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16.1University of Washington1.800.0%1st Place
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14.27Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Strammer | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Booth | 18.7% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Weiksnar | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Pete Hazelett | 2.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Oliver Riihiluoma | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 3.2% |
| George Prieto | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% |
| Andrew Criezis | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Zachary Marks | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| John Vrolyk | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.7% |
| Tedd Himler | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Bowers | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Pesch | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Gordon Lamphere | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Ted Green | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 15.2% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Fox | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 6.6% |
| Kyle Carney | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 1.6% |
| William Wilder | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 41.7% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.