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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.31+9.42vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.37+4.14vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+2.81vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.75+4.31vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.58+4.05vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.58+3.11vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+1.87vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.49+1.39vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.63-0.13vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.77-1.35vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.36-0.84vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.14-0.71vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.04-1.83vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.18-7.54vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.76-6.71vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.14-4.87vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.94-5.14vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.44-1.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.310.0%1st Place
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6.14College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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5.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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8.31Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.05University of Vermont2.580.1%1st Place
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9.11George Washington University2.580.1%1st Place
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8.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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9.39Connecticut College2.490.1%1st Place
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8.87Stanford University2.630.1%1st Place
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8.65Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.16Roger Williams University2.360.0%1st Place
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11.29U. S. Naval Academy2.140.0%1st Place
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11.17Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.46Brown University3.180.1%1st Place
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8.29Georgetown University2.760.1%1st Place
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11.13Old Dominion University2.140.0%1st Place
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11.86University of South Florida1.940.0%1st Place
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16.04University of Wisconsin0.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Ungar | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 3.4% |
| Alie Toppa | 9.0% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Dana Rohde | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Ladd | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Lindsay Doyle | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Miranda Bakos | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Bailey Carter | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Charlotte List | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Maria El-Khazindar | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Kelsey Shakin | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 3.0% |
| Jessica McJones | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 4.8% |
| Grace Howie | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 5.2% |
| Hannah Steadman | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Rose Edwards | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.6% |
| Kathryn Bornarth | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 7.5% |
| Cailin Considine | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 12.6% | 60.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.