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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.69vs Predicted
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2University of Miami1.93+8.99vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.28+5.04vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.92vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+3.44vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+1.58vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.20+4.67vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.38-0.39vs Predicted
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9Florida State University1.69+1.06vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.40-2.84vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.59-0.48vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.17+0.12vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-4.66vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.38-6.59vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.67-4.13vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.44-4.33vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.71-6.43vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.31-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.69Harvard University3.1817.9%1st Place
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10.99University of Miami1.932.9%1st Place
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8.04Tulane University2.286.2%1st Place
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7.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.0%1st Place
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8.44University of Rhode Island2.785.9%1st Place
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7.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.486.9%1st Place
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11.67Connecticut College1.203.1%1st Place
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7.61Dartmouth College2.387.4%1st Place
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10.06Florida State University1.694.5%1st Place
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7.16Georgetown University2.407.8%1st Place
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10.52Old Dominion University1.594.0%1st Place
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12.12Eckerd College1.172.5%1st Place
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8.34Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.4%1st Place
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7.41Cornell University2.388.2%1st Place
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10.87University of California at Santa Barbara1.673.5%1st Place
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11.67George Washington University1.442.5%1st Place
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10.57Webb Institute1.713.5%1st Place
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15.37University of Wisconsin0.310.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 17.9% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 5.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 8.8% |
| William Michels | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Peter Foley | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 8.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Bridget Green | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Henry Boeger | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 4.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 7.2% |
| Calvin Schmid | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 49.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.