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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.68vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+6.54vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.28+4.91vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38+3.56vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+5.68vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.38+1.42vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.79vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.40-0.91vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-1.46vs Predicted
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10Florida State University1.69+0.11vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.71-0.41vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.78-3.70vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.20-1.03vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.59-3.66vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.44-3.38vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.17-3.77vs Predicted
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17University of Miami1.93-5.69vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.31-2.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68Harvard University3.1817.5%1st Place
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8.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.2%1st Place
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7.91Tulane University2.287.2%1st Place
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7.56Cornell University2.387.8%1st Place
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10.68University of California at Santa Barbara1.673.6%1st Place
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7.42Dartmouth College2.387.5%1st Place
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7.79St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.5%1st Place
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7.09Georgetown University2.409.2%1st Place
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7.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.486.2%1st Place
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10.11Florida State University1.693.4%1st Place
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10.59Webb Institute1.714.2%1st Place
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8.3University of Rhode Island2.786.8%1st Place
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11.97Connecticut College1.202.5%1st Place
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10.34Old Dominion University1.593.6%1st Place
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11.62George Washington University1.442.1%1st Place
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12.23Eckerd College1.171.9%1st Place
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11.31University of Miami1.932.8%1st Place
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15.29University of Wisconsin0.310.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 17.5% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Kelly Holthus | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Henry Boeger | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% |
| William Michels | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Peter Foley | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 8.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 7.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 10.9% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 5.8% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 48.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.