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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University2.53+1.87vs Predicted
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2Hampton University1.08+3.87vs Predicted
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3Washington College0.80+3.59vs Predicted
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4SUNY Stony Brook2.59-1.26vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech0.59+1.95vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.47+1.30vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook0.79-0.52vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.74-3.73vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute0.81-2.45vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.59-3.05vs Predicted
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11William and Mary-0.26-1.96vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University-1.17-1.21vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute-0.36-3.59vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-2.06-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.87Jacksonville University2.530.3%1st Place
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5.87Hampton University1.080.1%1st Place
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6.59Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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2.74SUNY Stony Brook2.590.3%1st Place
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6.95Virginia Tech0.590.1%1st Place
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7.3Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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6.48SUNY Stony Brook0.790.1%1st Place
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4.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.740.1%1st Place
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6.55Webb Institute0.810.0%1st Place
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6.95Virginia Tech0.590.1%1st Place
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9.04William and Mary-0.260.0%1st Place
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10.79North Carolina State University-1.170.0%1st Place
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9.41Webb Institute-0.360.0%1st Place
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12.13Penn State University-2.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gower | 26.3% | 25.2% | 18.4% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Sunkler | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 28.6% | 25.2% | 18.4% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| James Gilmore III | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Devin Keister | 13.0% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 13.9% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hunt | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Powers | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 15.2% | 19.6% | 14.3% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Brooks | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 34.4% | 20.9% | 0.0% |
| Alec Bidwell | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 15.5% | 20.4% | 19.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| David Stude | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 17.2% | 65.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.