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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University2.59+1.07vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+1.61vs Predicted
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3Hampton University0.69+2.33vs Predicted
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4SUNY Stony Brook1.41-0.09vs Predicted
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5SUNY Stony Brook0.90-0.09vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.23+0.41vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech-0.06-0.04vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.87+0.75vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech-0.06-2.04vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute-0.47-2.07vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech-1.79-0.55vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University-0.71-3.36vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute-0.92-3.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.07Jacksonville University2.590.4%1st Place
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3.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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5.33Hampton University0.690.1%1st Place
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3.91SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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4.91SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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6.41Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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6.96Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.75William and Mary-0.870.0%1st Place
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6.96Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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7.93Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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10.45Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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8.64North Carolina State University-0.710.0%1st Place
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9.03Webb Institute-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burwell | 44.9% | 25.9% | 15.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 13.6% | 21.3% | 18.9% | 15.5% | 12.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 7.3% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 14.7% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 12.3% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 16.3% | 14.3% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 8.3% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 16.0% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Fulk | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 17.0% | 20.3% | 13.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 16.3% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 16.8% | 49.8% | 0.0% |
| Jason Perryman | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 18.1% | 15.8% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wiley | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 20.7% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.