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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University2.59+1.10vs Predicted
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2SUNY Stony Brook1.41+1.89vs Predicted
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3SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.91vs Predicted
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4Washington College0.23+2.46vs Predicted
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5Hampton University0.69+0.40vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-2.41vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech-0.06+0.01vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.87+0.80vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech-0.06-1.99vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute-0.47-2.09vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University-0.71-2.52vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-1.79-1.40vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute-0.83-4.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.1Jacksonville University2.590.4%1st Place
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3.89SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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4.91SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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6.46Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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5.4Hampton University0.690.1%1st Place
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3.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.2%1st Place
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7.01Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.8William and Mary-0.870.0%1st Place
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7.01Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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7.91Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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8.48North Carolina State University-0.710.0%1st Place
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10.6Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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8.85Webb Institute-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burwell | 43.3% | 27.1% | 15.5% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 12.7% | 16.9% | 17.7% | 17.2% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 8.8% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 5.9% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 15.9% | 19.6% | 17.6% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Fulk | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 15.4% | 20.8% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Jason Perryman | 1.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 17.8% | 16.3% | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 15.6% | 54.2% | 0.0% |
| Blake Loncharich | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 17.1% | 21.8% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.