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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University2.59+1.09vs Predicted
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2Hampton University0.69+3.45vs Predicted
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3SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.97vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech-0.06+3.25vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.23+1.39vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute-0.47+2.17vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech-0.06+0.25vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-4.39vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University-0.71-0.30vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook1.41-6.03vs Predicted
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11William and Mary-0.87-1.85vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute-0.83-3.08vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-1.88-1.78vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech-1.79-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.09Jacksonville University2.590.4%1st Place
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5.45Hampton University0.690.1%1st Place
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4.97SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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7.25Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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6.39Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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8.17Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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7.25Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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3.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.2%1st Place
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8.7North Carolina State University-0.710.0%1st Place
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3.97SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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9.15William and Mary-0.870.0%1st Place
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8.92Webb Institute-0.830.0%1st Place
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11.22Penn State University-1.880.0%1st Place
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11.1Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burwell | 43.7% | 27.0% | 15.7% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 6.4% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 6.9% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 1.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 16.1% | 19.0% | 18.2% | 16.3% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Perryman | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 13.4% | 15.5% | 16.2% | 16.4% | 15.3% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Fulk | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 14.1% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Blake Loncharich | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| victor lu | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 22.5% | 40.7% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 23.3% | 35.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.