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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Stony Brook1.41+2.88vs Predicted
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2Washington College0.23+4.23vs Predicted
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3SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.76vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech-0.06+2.88vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech-0.06+1.88vs Predicted
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6Hampton University0.69-0.75vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute-0.47+0.78vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-4.48vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University2.59-6.93vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech-1.79+0.28vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University-0.71-2.77vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute-0.92-3.17vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-1.80-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.88SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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6.23Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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4.76SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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6.88Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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6.88Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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5.25Hampton University0.690.1%1st Place
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7.78Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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3.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.2%1st Place
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2.07Jacksonville University2.590.4%1st Place
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10.28Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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8.23North Carolina State University-0.710.0%1st Place
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8.83Webb Institute-0.920.0%1st Place
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10.3William and Mary-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McCauley | 12.7% | 15.8% | 18.8% | 16.5% | 15.7% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 3.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 8.7% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 6.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 15.6% | 17.4% | 15.9% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 16.2% | 20.5% | 18.2% | 15.9% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase Burwell | 44.3% | 26.7% | 15.4% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 26.0% | 36.4% | 0.0% |
| Jason Perryman | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 17.1% | 17.7% | 13.9% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wiley | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 19.1% | 18.2% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Skelton | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 23.6% | 39.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.