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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Stony Brook1.41+2.92vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech-0.06+5.02vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+0.62vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University2.59-1.92vs Predicted
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5SUNY Stony Brook0.90-0.17vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech-0.06+1.02vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.23-0.65vs Predicted
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8Hampton University0.69-2.71vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute-0.47-1.13vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University-0.71-1.45vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute-0.92-2.03vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-1.79-1.33vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-1.80-2.16vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-1.88-3.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.92SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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7.02Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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3.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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2.08Jacksonville University2.590.4%1st Place
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4.83SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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7.02Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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6.35Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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5.29Hampton University0.690.1%1st Place
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7.87Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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8.55North Carolina State University-0.710.0%1st Place
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8.97Webb Institute-0.920.0%1st Place
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10.67Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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10.84William and Mary-1.800.0%1st Place
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11.0Penn State University-1.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McCauley | 12.5% | 17.1% | 16.0% | 18.1% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 13.8% | 20.1% | 19.1% | 16.4% | 13.7% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase Burwell | 43.6% | 26.3% | 15.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 9.4% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 1.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 16.3% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Jason Perryman | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wiley | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 15.3% | 16.7% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 15.7% | 23.6% | 24.5% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Skelton | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 22.3% | 29.8% | 0.0% |
| victor lu | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 23.3% | 32.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.