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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech-0.06+6.05vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech-0.06+5.05vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.59-0.93vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-0.33vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute-0.47+3.08vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.23+0.33vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook0.90-2.15vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech-1.79+2.62vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook1.41-5.17vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute-0.83-1.15vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University-0.71-2.47vs Predicted
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12William and Mary-1.80-1.28vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-1.88-2.00vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.69-8.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.05Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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7.05Virginia Tech-0.060.0%1st Place
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2.07Jacksonville University2.590.4%1st Place
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3.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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8.08Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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6.33Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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4.85SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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10.62Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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3.83SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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8.85Webb Institute-0.830.0%1st Place
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8.53North Carolina State University-0.710.0%1st Place
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10.72William and Mary-1.800.0%1st Place
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11.0Penn State University-1.880.0%1st Place
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5.39Hampton University0.690.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Gibson | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gibson | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Chase Burwell | 44.5% | 27.4% | 14.9% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 14.1% | 18.7% | 18.4% | 17.6% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 12.1% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 8.3% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 16.6% | 22.2% | 26.9% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 13.3% | 16.4% | 19.3% | 15.7% | 14.2% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Loncharich | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 17.1% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Jason Perryman | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 15.9% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Skelton | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 22.6% | 25.8% | 0.0% |
| victor lu | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 23.7% | 33.5% | 0.0% |
| Elisabeth Kuester | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.