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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.72+6.66vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.17+1.35vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+5.10vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.53+4.23vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.33+0.47vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy2.60-1.42vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.75+0.27vs Predicted
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8University of Washington1.74-0.42vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.04+5.80vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.61+2.05vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.67-2.94vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.26+1.63vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.11+2.29vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands0.15-0.19vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.44+1.63vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.94+2.13vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay0.56-4.48vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine1.06-7.65vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.03-0.75vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands-0.97-1.72vs Predicted
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21San Diego State University-0.46-4.57vs Predicted
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22University of California at Santa Cruz-1.03-3.43vs Predicted
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23California State University Monterey Bay-0.56-6.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.66University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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3.35Stanford University3.170.2%1st Place
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8.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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8.23University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
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5.47University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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4.58California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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7.27University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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7.58University of Washington1.740.1%1st Place
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14.8University of California at Los Angeles-0.040.0%1st Place
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12.05University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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8.06University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.1%1st Place
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13.63University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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15.29University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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13.81California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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16.63University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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18.13University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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12.52California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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10.35University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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18.25University of California at San Diego-1.030.0%1st Place
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18.28California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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16.43San Diego State University-0.460.0%1st Place
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18.57University of California at Santa Cruz-1.030.0%1st Place
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16.98California State University Monterey Bay-0.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paulsen | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 24.5% | 19.7% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 12.1% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 14.1% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 7.3% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Skeel | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arjun Boddu | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Madeline Kraus | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Ben Gerber | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 16.3% |
| Peter Schmidt | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| McKenna Roonan | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 17.9% |
| Kevin Gates | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 17.0% |
| Adam Wild | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 5.5% |
| David Gann | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 22.0% |
| Matthew Elliott Elliott | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 7.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.