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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+3.30vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.36+3.34vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+6.13vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.56-1.31vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine1.06+4.59vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.43+2.37vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.53+1.10vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy1.49-0.04vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.53-1.07vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.33-4.53vs Predicted
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11University of Washington1.07-1.45vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.56-0.80vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.80-2.63vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-1.93vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay0.56-3.80vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.52-4.59vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands0.15-4.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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5.34University of Hawaii2.360.1%1st Place
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9.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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2.69Stanford University3.560.3%1st Place
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9.59University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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8.37University of California at Los Angeles1.430.0%1st Place
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8.1University of California at Berkeley1.530.0%1st Place
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7.96California Poly Maritime Academy1.490.0%1st Place
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7.93University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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5.47University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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9.55University of Washington1.070.0%1st Place
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11.2California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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10.37University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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12.07University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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11.2California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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11.41Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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12.51California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 14.6% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cuylar Zimmerman | 10.6% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alyson Crowley | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Romain Screve | 34.2% | 21.3% | 17.8% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Emi Stephanoff | 3.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 9.3% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smit | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 14.2% | 22.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 16.4% | 25.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.