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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.56+1.53vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.43+6.17vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+6.11vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+0.41vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.53+2.95vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.26+6.16vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.18-1.06vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine1.06+1.38vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.07+0.40vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.56+1.28vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy1.49-2.91vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.52-0.66vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.80-2.63vs Predicted
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14University of Washington1.53-6.25vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay0.56-3.72vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii2.28-10.42vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands0.15-4.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.53Stanford University3.560.4%1st Place
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8.17University of California at Los Angeles1.430.0%1st Place
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9.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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4.41University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.1%1st Place
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7.95University of California at Berkeley1.530.0%1st Place
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12.16University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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5.94University of Southern California2.180.1%1st Place
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9.38University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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9.4University of Washington1.070.0%1st Place
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11.28California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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8.09California Poly Maritime Academy1.490.0%1st Place
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11.34Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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10.37University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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7.75University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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11.28California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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5.58University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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12.54California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Screve | 35.7% | 24.5% | 17.5% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Alyson Crowley | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 12.9% | 16.3% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smit | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Emi Stephanoff | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 10.0% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 17.6% | 25.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.