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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+1.62vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.72+3.74vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy2.08+1.80vs Predicted
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4Stanford University1.60+2.15vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.14-0.36vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.09+5.19vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.66-0.95vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.15-0.73vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.92-0.94vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.16+1.37vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.14-0.54vs Predicted
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12University of Washington0.95-4.00vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University-0.20-1.54vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.14-3.54vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.03-1.53vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-0.97-2.52vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-5.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.62University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.3%1st Place
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5.74University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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4.8California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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6.15Stanford University1.600.1%1st Place
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4.64University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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11.19University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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6.05University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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7.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.150.0%1st Place
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8.06University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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11.37University of Washington-0.160.0%1st Place
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10.46California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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8.0University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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11.46Western Washington University-0.200.0%1st Place
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10.46California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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13.47University of California at San Diego-1.030.0%1st Place
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13.48California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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11.24University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 33.7% | 24.9% | 15.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 12.1% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 11.9% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josselyn Verutti | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Shaan Shridhar | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Prewitt | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| McKenna Roonan | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 13.3% | 18.9% | 32.6% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 20.8% | 32.5% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.