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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University4.49+4.82vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.50+3.86vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges5.05+1.24vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.26+6.69vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.74+0.20vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.03+5.45vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin2.85+5.39vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.94vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.81-0.75vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.56-0.71vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.64+2.18vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.37-1.44vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.07-1.85vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.00-2.17vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.78-6.56vs Predicted
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16University of Miami3.50-6.41vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.29-2.65vs Predicted
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18University of Washington1.80-2.02vs Predicted
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19Salve Regina University3.36-9.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.82Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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5.86Harvard University4.500.1%1st Place
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4.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges5.050.2%1st Place
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10.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.260.0%1st Place
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5.2Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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11.45Old Dominion University3.030.0%1st Place
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12.39University of Wisconsin2.850.0%1st Place
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11.94U. S. Naval Academy2.990.0%1st Place
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8.25Tufts University3.810.1%1st Place
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9.29Boston University3.560.0%1st Place
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13.18Yale University2.640.0%1st Place
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10.56University of Vermont3.370.0%1st Place
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11.15Stanford University3.070.0%1st Place
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11.83SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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8.44College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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9.59University of Miami3.500.0%1st Place
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14.35Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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15.98University of Washington1.800.0%1st Place
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9.81Salve Regina University3.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Strammer | 10.0% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tedd Himler | 11.0% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Booth | 19.8% | 16.2% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Lamphere | 2.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 1.7% |
| Chris Barnard | 12.1% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Andrew Fox | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 6.1% |
| George Prieto | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 4.9% |
| Andrew Criezis | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Pesch | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| John Vrolyk | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.3% |
| Pete Hazelett | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Oliver Riihiluoma | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% |
| Ted Green | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 3.8% |
| Erik Bowers | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Alexander Weiksnar | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 20.3% |
| William Wilder | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 38.4% |
| Kyle Carney | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.