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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University2.60+3.97vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.28+3.77vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.90+1.14vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80+3.09vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.56-0.02vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.55+1.78vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University1.82-0.11vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.79-0.98vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.60-4.31vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.74-2.84vs Predicted
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12Bates College0.37-1.57vs Predicted
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13Harvard University1.82-5.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97Boston University2.600.1%1st Place
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5.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.280.1%1st Place
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4.14Yale University2.900.2%1st Place
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7.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.1%1st Place
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4.98University of Rhode Island2.560.1%1st Place
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7.78Boston University1.550.0%1st Place
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6.89Salve Regina University1.820.1%1st Place
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7.02Tufts University1.790.1%1st Place
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4.69Brown University2.600.1%1st Place
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7.16University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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10.43Bates College0.370.0%1st Place
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7.09Harvard University1.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dochoda | 12.5% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Jesse McKnight | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 17.8% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 6.5% |
| Matthew Gibbs | 12.3% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Skye Shepherd | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 17.9% | 9.4% |
| Grace Vincens | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 5.4% |
| Leyla Senocak | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 5.9% |
| John Mastrandrea | 13.1% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Peter Schneider | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 6.5% |
| Amy Macdonald | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 13.8% | 57.2% |
| Owen Schafer | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 10.4% | 5.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.