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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+6.13vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+2.79vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+2.95vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.76+4.17vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University5.19-1.22vs Predicted
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6Ocean County College2.88+5.63vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.73+5.11vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.54+1.11vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.63-0.31vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+2.36vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy4.34-4.70vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University1.95+2.90vs Predicted
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13Washington College3.65-4.45vs Predicted
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14Cornell University3.27-4.17vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-5.41vs Predicted
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16Columbia University2.87-4.27vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.97-2.30vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.84-6.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.13SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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4.79St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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5.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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8.17Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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3.78Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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11.63Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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12.11Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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9.11University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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8.69University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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12.36Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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6.3U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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14.9Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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8.55Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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9.83Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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9.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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11.73Columbia University2.870.0%1st Place
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14.7Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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11.68George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 12.0% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Thompson | 9.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.3% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 23.2% | 19.1% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
| Alexander Sachs | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 8.3% |
| Robert Vann | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 17.6% | 33.4% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Philip Alley | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Gary Herring | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Brendan Hannon | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 5.4% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 20.1% | 29.1% |
| William Ricketson | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 5.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.