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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy4.34+5.34vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+3.96vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+1.81vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.63+4.69vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.76+3.22vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.87+5.62vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University5.19-3.28vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.06vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+0.56vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College2.88+1.81vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.73+1.28vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.54-2.57vs Predicted
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13Washington College3.65-4.42vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.97+0.39vs Predicted
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15Cornell University3.27-4.88vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University1.95-1.31vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College4.15-9.96vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.84-6.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.34U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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5.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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4.81St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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8.69University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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8.22Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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11.62Columbia University2.870.0%1st Place
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3.72Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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12.06Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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9.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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11.81Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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12.28Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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9.43University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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8.58Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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14.39Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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10.12Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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14.69Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.04SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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11.65George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Vann | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Thompson | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 13.6% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.1% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Brendan Hannon | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 23.0% | 19.4% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 7.8% |
| Gary Herring | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.6% |
| Alexander Sachs | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 9.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 16.8% | 27.1% |
| Philip Alley | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Paul Stevens | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 17.8% | 30.6% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Ricketson | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.