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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University5.19+2.59vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+2.45vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.73+8.60vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+5.23vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy4.34+0.85vs Predicted
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6Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+5.83vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45-1.36vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.76-0.15vs Predicted
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9Ocean County College2.88+2.36vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.84+1.26vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.54-2.13vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University1.95+1.96vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.87-1.69vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.48-1.41vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College4.15-8.35vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania3.63-7.47vs Predicted
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17Washington College3.65-8.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.59Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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4.45St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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11.6Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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9.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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5.85U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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11.83Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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5.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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7.85Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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11.36Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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11.26George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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8.87University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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13.96Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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11.31Columbia University2.870.0%1st Place
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12.59Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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6.65SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.53University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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8.44Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Buckingham | 22.0% | 19.2% | 15.7% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 16.6% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 9.0% |
| Gary Herring | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
| Robert Vann | 8.9% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 9.9% |
| David Thompson | 10.9% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Roble | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 7.9% |
| William Ricketson | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Paul Stevens | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 36.7% |
| Brendan Hannon | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 18.1% | 14.5% |
| Shawn Murray | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Halsey Richartz | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.