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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+4.36vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+2.43vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University5.19+0.60vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy4.34+2.06vs Predicted
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5Cornell University3.27+4.65vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.65+2.64vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.63+1.54vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.76-0.13vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia3.540.00vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College2.88+1.16vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-1.56vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-0.29vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.87-1.62vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.60-5.26vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.84-3.62vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.73-4.17vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University1.95-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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4.43St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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3.6Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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6.06U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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9.65Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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8.64Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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8.54University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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7.87Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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9.0University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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11.16Ocean County College2.880.0%1st Place
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9.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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11.71Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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11.38Columbia University2.870.0%1st Place
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8.74SUNY Maritime College3.600.0%1st Place
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11.38George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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11.83Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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14.2Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Blouin | 13.3% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 15.8% | 15.6% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 21.2% | 18.7% | 17.4% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Philip Alley | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Halsey Richartz | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Stephanie Roble | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Tyler Kennedy | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 7.3% |
| Gary Herring | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 11.2% |
| Brendan Hannon | 2.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.9% |
| Harry Scott | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| William Ricketson | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 9.5% |
| Alexander Sachs | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 11.3% |
| Paul Stevens | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 41.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.