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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University5.19+2.59vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+3.44vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+5.68vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+7.31vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.84+5.87vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.63+2.53vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.87+3.91vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy4.34-2.12vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+0.28vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83-5.48vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.73+0.50vs Predicted
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12Washington College3.65-3.74vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University1.95+0.62vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University3.76-6.02vs Predicted
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15Cornell University3.27-5.41vs Predicted
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16Ocean County College0.20+0.38vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College4.15-10.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.59Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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5.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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8.68University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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11.31Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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10.87George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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8.53University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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10.91Columbia University2.870.0%1st Place
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5.88U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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9.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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4.52St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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11.5Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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8.26Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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13.62Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.98Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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9.59Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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16.38Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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6.66SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Buckingham | 23.7% | 18.2% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 11.2% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 2.0% |
| William Ricketson | 1.8% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 1.7% |
| Halsey Richartz | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Hannon | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 1.2% |
| Robert Vann | 10.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 0.3% |
| Michael Menninger | 15.4% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 2.7% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Paul Stevens | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 15.9% | 34.6% | 10.2% |
| Stephanie Roble | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 9.0% | 80.9% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.