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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy4.34+4.77vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University5.19+1.54vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+2.51vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College4.15+2.65vs Predicted
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5Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+6.23vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.63+2.57vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83-2.53vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.73+3.14vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.87+2.14vs Predicted
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10Cornell University3.27-0.44vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.76-2.94vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.84-0.97vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia3.54-4.21vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-4.78vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University1.95-1.45vs Predicted
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16Ocean County College0.20+0.37vs Predicted
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17Washington College3.65-8.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.77U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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3.54Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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5.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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6.65SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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11.23Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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8.57University of Pennsylvania3.630.0%1st Place
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4.47St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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11.14Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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11.14Columbia University2.870.0%1st Place
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9.56Cornell University3.270.0%1st Place
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8.06Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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11.03George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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8.79University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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9.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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13.55Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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16.37Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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8.4Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Vann | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 23.0% | 18.1% | 16.9% | 15.0% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 10.9% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 2.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Michael Menninger | 15.1% | 14.1% | 15.4% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 1.5% |
| Brendan Hannon | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 1.1% |
| Philip Alley | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| William Ricketson | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 1.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Gary Herring | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Paul Stevens | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 31.4% | 12.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 9.0% | 79.8% |
| Michael Whitford | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.