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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+4.83vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.00+6.89vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+4.10vs Predicted
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4Columbia University1.99+8.24vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy4.09-0.05vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-0.53vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University4.74-3.65vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.29+3.25vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.30-1.51vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.01-1.09vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.89-1.84vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.61+1.91vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University0.98+2.19vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.68-4.43vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.50-4.49vs Predicted
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16Ocean County College1.73-2.62vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.23-5.34vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-5.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.89SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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7.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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12.24Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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4.95U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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5.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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3.35Georgetown University4.740.3%1st Place
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11.25Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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7.49Old Dominion University3.300.1%1st Place
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8.91University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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9.16Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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13.91Christopher Newport University1.610.0%1st Place
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15.19Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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9.57University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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10.51Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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13.38Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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11.66George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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12.14Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Anderson | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Daniel Liberty | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| John Croll | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 8.3% |
| Clark Hayes | 14.5% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 11.1% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 26.0% | 20.5% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Vincent Andrews | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Victoria Miller | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 16.6% | 19.2% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 38.6% |
| Michael Russom | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Zachary Schippe | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 13.9% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% |
| Christian Geary | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 6.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.