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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy4.09+4.19vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.67vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.74+0.44vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.30+3.53vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.29+6.17vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.23+5.53vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.99+5.35vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.00+0.57vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.87vs Predicted
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10Monmouth University0.98+5.53vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.89-1.80vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.50-1.15vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-6.15vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia3.01-5.63vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-9.32vs Predicted
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16Ocean County College1.73-2.67vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.61-3.26vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-5.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.19U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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5.67St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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3.44Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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7.53Old Dominion University3.300.1%1st Place
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11.17Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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11.53George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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12.35Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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8.57SUNY Maritime College3.000.1%1st Place
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9.87University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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15.53Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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9.2Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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10.85Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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6.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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8.37University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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5.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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13.33Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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13.74Christopher Newport University1.610.0%1st Place
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12.14Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark Hayes | 12.7% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 23.0% | 20.6% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 3.1% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 4.8% |
| John Croll | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 8.1% |
| Ted Green | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Michael Russom | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 44.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Daniel Liberty | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Austen Anderson | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 13.3% |
| Victoria Miller | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 18.0% | 15.7% |
| Christian Geary | 2.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.