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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+2.82vs Predicted
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2SUNY Stony Brook2.59+1.37vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology1.76+2.32vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.57+1.92vs Predicted
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6Columbia University1.65-0.22vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech0.47+2.07vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.96-3.11vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.94-1.21vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University-1.01+2.64vs Predicted
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11Monmouth University0.36-1.58vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy-1.54+1.49vs Predicted
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13Washington College1.26-6.02vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.47-4.93vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.72-6.46vs Predicted
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16Rochester Institute of Technology-0.49-4.53vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.51-5.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.2%1st Place
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3.37SUNY Stony Brook2.590.2%1st Place
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5.32Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.1%1st Place
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5.92Villanova University1.570.1%1st Place
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5.78Columbia University1.650.1%1st Place
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9.07Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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4.89Christopher Newport University1.960.1%1st Place
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7.79University of Rochester0.940.0%1st Place
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12.64Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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9.42Monmouth University0.360.0%1st Place
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13.49U. S. Military Academy-1.540.0%1st Place
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6.98Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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9.07Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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8.54Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.47Rochester Institute of Technology-0.490.0%1st Place
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11.5Princeton University-0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Swikart | 19.7% | 19.0% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 24.4% | 21.2% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Roleke | 9.8% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Gillette | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam DeVita | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Vir Menon | 11.8% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rochon | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 10.7% | 17.1% | 27.0% | 23.6% | 0.0% |
| Nina Van De Vaarst | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Nina Tucker | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 16.8% | 52.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Frederick Piasecki | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kaylie Byrnes | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 19.7% | 20.9% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| George Kevrekidis | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 16.1% | 17.6% | 19.4% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.