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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy4.09+4.05vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.54vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.30+4.55vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.00+4.32vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.82vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.50+4.36vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.99+5.11vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.89+0.83vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-3.60vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.16vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.23+0.40vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College1.73+1.22vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University4.33-8.88vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.23vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia3.01-6.59vs Predicted
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16Washington College2.29-4.82vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University0.98-1.88vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.48-2.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.05U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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5.54St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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7.55Old Dominion University3.300.1%1st Place
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8.32SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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6.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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10.36Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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12.11Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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8.83Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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5.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.84University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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11.4George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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13.22Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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4.12Georgetown University4.330.2%1st Place
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11.77Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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8.41University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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11.18Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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15.12Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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15.96Christopher Newport University0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark Hayes | 13.0% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.5% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ted Green | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Daniel Liberty | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| John Croll | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 5.1% |
| Vincent Andrews | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Austen Anderson | 12.0% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Meredith Carroll | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Zachary Schippe | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 8.3% |
| Scott Furnary | 18.6% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Geary | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 2.3% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 24.6% | 27.8% |
| Ian McAllister | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 20.8% | 46.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.