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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+4.71vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.75+6.07vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.43+6.37vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.25+2.44vs Predicted
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5Cornell University3.14+1.94vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.51+3.20vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.76+1.17vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.79+0.08vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.77-0.82vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-3.95vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.32-1.15vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.80-3.68vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.95-5.18vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.97-6.55vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.14-4.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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8.07Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.37Roger Williams University2.430.0%1st Place
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6.44Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.94Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.2Boston University2.510.0%1st Place
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8.17U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.08Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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8.18Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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9.85Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
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8.32University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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7.82Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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7.45Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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10.34SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dana Rohde | 11.9% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| Taylor Ladd | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Dane Pedersen | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.4% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| Clark Uhl | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| Reed Lorimer | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% |
| Jimmy Madigan | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% |
| Sam Alexander | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% |
| Gabby Rizika | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.7% |
| Charles Lomax | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Samuel Shea | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 17.6% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% |
| Christian Filter | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% |
| John Lawless | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 19.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.