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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.25+4.22vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.70+4.91vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.06+2.85vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.27+4.58vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.84+1.73vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.94+0.26vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.13-1.36vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.74+2.33vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-3.33vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.86+0.01vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.96-1.31vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.13-2.70vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.50-4.88vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.07-4.78vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.95-2.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.22U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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6.91Brown University2.700.1%1st Place
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5.85Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.58Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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6.73Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.26Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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5.64Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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10.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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5.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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10.01University of Pennsylvania1.860.0%1st Place
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9.69Tufts University1.960.0%1st Place
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9.3Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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8.12Cornell University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.22Fordham University2.070.0%1st Place
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12.46SUNY Maritime College0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bayless | 13.7% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Quinn Andersen | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Sam Morrell | 10.7% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 4.6% |
| Henry Burnes | 7.7% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Alden Grimes | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 12.3% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Devin Keister | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 12.5% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 10.6% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Tanner Probst | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 10.2% |
| Austen Freda | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% |
| Riley Read | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 6.5% |
| Daisy Holthus | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| Sam Johnsen | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 6.4% |
| Alexander Ellis | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 42.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.