Race 3B

owen-mosbacher-knapp-trophies

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sam Morrell 11.5% 10.4% 11.1% 8.2% 9.8% 9.3% 8.0% 8.0% 5.6% 6.0% 4.1% 3.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7%
Nicolas Hernandez 11.8% 11.8% 11.2% 11.3% 8.6% 8.6% 8.3% 6.3% 6.8% 4.6% 4.7% 3.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2%
Henry Burnes 8.1% 8.9% 9.4% 9.8% 6.6% 7.5% 8.4% 8.4% 8.5% 7.1% 6.5% 5.2% 2.7% 2.2% 0.7%
Gage Schoenherr 11.7% 10.4% 11.5% 10.1% 8.2% 7.8% 8.8% 6.6% 8.1% 5.7% 4.1% 2.6% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Connor Bayless 12.6% 12.0% 9.2% 10.5% 11.5% 9.7% 8.2% 6.8% 5.5% 4.5% 4.2% 3.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Tanner Probst 2.6% 3.6% 3.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.3% 3.8% 6.5% 6.7% 8.0% 7.7% 10.1% 12.2% 13.1% 10.4%
Quinn Andersen 8.1% 6.9% 7.5% 8.0% 7.0% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 7.5% 8.0% 6.2% 5.4% 4.9% 3.9% 1.4%
Alden Grimes 9.7% 9.1% 10.1% 8.6% 8.0% 8.6% 7.0% 8.2% 8.4% 6.7% 6.5% 4.0% 2.3% 2.0% 0.8%
Daisy Holthus 5.3% 5.0% 6.9% 7.6% 7.8% 7.0% 8.7% 7.7% 8.2% 8.0% 7.3% 8.8% 5.6% 4.4% 1.7%
Austen Freda 3.1% 3.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.7% 6.3% 5.6% 5.9% 6.5% 8.1% 9.5% 10.1% 10.7% 11.6% 8.5%
Gerard Eastman 4.4% 6.0% 4.1% 5.5% 6.7% 6.2% 5.3% 8.3% 7.4% 7.7% 7.8% 7.8% 10.3% 6.7% 5.8%
Devin Keister 2.5% 2.3% 1.9% 2.5% 4.5% 3.2% 6.2% 5.3% 5.2% 6.3% 8.1% 10.1% 12.2% 16.1% 13.6%
Riley Read 3.9% 4.4% 4.1% 4.4% 5.1% 6.0% 5.2% 5.9% 5.2% 7.5% 10.9% 10.5% 9.3% 10.3% 7.3%
Sam Johnsen 3.7% 3.9% 4.3% 4.1% 6.4% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 7.7% 7.9% 8.8% 9.5% 10.2% 10.5% 6.5%
Alexander Ellis 1.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 2.0% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.9% 3.6% 6.6% 10.9% 14.8% 42.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.