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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.13+4.89vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.06+4.00vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+2.98vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.96+5.89vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.84+2.04vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.27+3.04vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.07+2.65vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.50+0.18vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.29+2.99vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.13-0.47vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.74-0.32vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.70-4.32vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.94-6.11vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.25-8.45vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania3.12-8.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.89Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.0Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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9.89Tufts University1.960.0%1st Place
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7.04Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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9.04Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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9.65Fordham University2.070.0%1st Place
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8.18Cornell University2.500.1%1st Place
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11.99SUNY Maritime College1.290.0%1st Place
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9.53Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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7.68Brown University2.700.1%1st Place
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6.89Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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5.55U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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6.03University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Hernandez | 11.1% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Sam Morrell | 9.7% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 11.1% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Austen Freda | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 11.7% |
| Henry Burnes | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 5.1% |
| Sam Johnsen | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 10.6% |
| Daisy Holthus | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| John Wilcenski | 0.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 33.1% |
| Riley Read | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% |
| Devin Keister | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 15.8% | 19.6% |
| Quinn Andersen | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Alden Grimes | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Connor Bayless | 11.5% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.7% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.