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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.60+6.60vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.56+5.70vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+2.23vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.71+6.84vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+3.96vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.96+3.98vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.77-0.30vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.48-0.19vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.91+1.16vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.35-1.39vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.93-0.77vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.49vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-6.33vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.72-3.37vs Predicted
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15Fordham University3.16-5.86vs Predicted
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16Marquette University1.11-0.05vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.24-7.97vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont2.05-4.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.6Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.7Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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5.23Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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10.84Connecticut College2.710.0%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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9.98Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
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6.7Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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7.81Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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10.16Boston University2.910.0%1st Place
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8.61Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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10.23University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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12.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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6.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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10.63George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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9.14Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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15.95Marquette University1.110.0%1st Place
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9.03Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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13.26University of Vermont2.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sertl | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Romain Screve | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.0% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Walter Florio | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 4.8% |
| Mack Fox | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 2.2% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 8.6% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Josh Dochoda | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| Wade Waddell | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Luke Ingalls | 4.6% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 11.0% |
| Ty Ingram | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Ryan Clulo | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 53.7% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Colin Richards | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 19.1% | 13.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.