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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.56+6.71vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+10.42vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.96+7.19vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.91+6.07vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.35+3.33vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.71+4.98vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.24+1.78vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+0.91vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.05+4.36vs Predicted
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10Fordham University3.16-0.62vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.77-4.14vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.72-0.73vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.60-5.70vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-7.50vs Predicted
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15Yale University4.24-9.98vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.48-8.09vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island2.93-6.81vs Predicted
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18Marquette University1.11-2.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.71Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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12.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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10.19Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
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10.07Boston University2.910.0%1st Place
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8.33Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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10.98Connecticut College2.710.0%1st Place
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8.78Tufts University3.240.0%1st Place
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8.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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13.36University of Vermont2.050.0%1st Place
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9.38Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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6.86Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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11.27George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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7.3Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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6.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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5.02Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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7.91Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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10.19University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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15.83Marquette University1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Screve | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 8.4% |
| Jack McGraw | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Josh Dochoda | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Wade Waddell | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Walter Florio | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 5.1% |
| Cameron Holley | 4.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Mack Fox | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 0.5% |
| Colin Richards | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 5.2% |
| Nick Sertl | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ty Ingram | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.2% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Luke Ingalls | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| Ryan Clulo | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 13.6% | 55.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.