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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.60+6.76vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+7.39vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.72+8.29vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.77+2.76vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.48+2.91vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.91+4.28vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.21+2.07vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.16+1.20vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.35-0.61vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.96+0.26vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-4.03vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.24-2.71vs Predicted
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13Yale University4.24-7.94vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.05-0.75vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.56-7.40vs Predicted
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16Marquette University1.11+0.02vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-4.53vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island2.93-7.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.76Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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9.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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11.29George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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6.76Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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7.91Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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10.28Boston University2.910.0%1st Place
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9.07Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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9.2Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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8.39Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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10.26Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
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6.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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9.29Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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5.06Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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13.25University of Vermont2.050.0%1st Place
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7.6Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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16.02Marquette University1.110.0%1st Place
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12.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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10.03University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sertl | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Mack Fox | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 3.1% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Josh Dochoda | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Roberto Stevens | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 2.1% |
| Ty Ingram | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Holley | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.1% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Richards | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 21.1% | 14.0% |
| Romain Screve | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Clulo | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 12.8% | 57.8% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 10.9% |
| Luke Ingalls | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.