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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.16+8.48vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.35+6.73vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.48+5.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+4.99vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.77+1.81vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.56+1.67vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.24-1.82vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.96+1.99vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.60-1.59vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.72+1.36vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.21-1.79vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-4.85vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.24-4.22vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.93-4.05vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.91-4.71vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-3.62vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.05-3.38vs Predicted
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18Marquette University1.11-2.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.48Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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8.73Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
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8.17Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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6.81Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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7.67Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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5.18Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.99Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.41Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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11.36George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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9.21Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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7.15Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.78Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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9.95University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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10.29Boston University2.910.0%1st Place
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12.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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13.62University of Vermont2.050.0%1st Place
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15.84Marquette University1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Stevens | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Mack Fox | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 9.5% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Romain Screve | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Baird | 14.0% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 4.3% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Luke Ingalls | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Josh Dochoda | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 9.6% |
| Colin Richards | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 20.1% | 16.9% |
| Ryan Clulo | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 53.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.