← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+7.81vs Predicted
-
2Boston University2.91+7.97vs Predicted
-
3Boston College3.35+5.21vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University3.16+4.65vs Predicted
-
5Roger Williams University3.77+1.37vs Predicted
-
6Stanford University3.56+1.21vs Predicted
-
7University of Vermont2.05+6.00vs Predicted
-
8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-1.63vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College1.98+4.27vs Predicted
-
10University of Rhode Island2.93-0.03vs Predicted
-
11Yale University4.24-6.03vs Predicted
-
12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.04vs Predicted
-
13Brown University3.48-5.58vs Predicted
-
14Tufts University2.29-2.15vs Predicted
-
15George Washington University2.72-4.51vs Predicted
-
16Harvard University3.60-8.85vs Predicted
-
17Dartmouth College2.96-7.32vs Predicted
-
18Marquette University1.11-2.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
-
9.97Boston University2.910.0%1st Place
-
8.21Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
-
8.65Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
-
6.37Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
-
7.21Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
-
13.0University of Vermont2.050.0%1st Place
-
6.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
-
13.27Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
-
9.97University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
-
4.97Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
-
12.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
-
7.42Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
-
11.85Tufts University2.290.0%1st Place
-
10.49George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
-
7.15Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
-
9.68Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
-
15.58Marquette University1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Fox | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| Josh Dochoda | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 1.3% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.8% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Romain Screve | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Colin Richards | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 13.5% |
| Ty Ingram | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Emilia Clementi | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 17.5% | 13.7% |
| Luke Ingalls | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.4% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 7.7% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Bram Brakman | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 7.2% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 2.3% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Clulo | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 48.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.